Almost as soon as the 2016 election was over peoplenoticed similaritiesbetween map of presidential candidate funding and where the opioid crisis is greatest . Now the correlation has been support , and partly explained .
To test whether the relationship is more than a trick of the eyeDr James Goodwinof the University of Texas used the proportionality of a county ’s universe who were dictate at least 90 day deserving of opioids in 2015 . Of course prescription medicine are just part of the picture , with about half opioid deaths descend from illegal drug . However , since diacetylmorphine dealers rarely publish databases of where they are selling , and criminal enforcement rate vary , the Medicare datum Goodwin withdraw on is probably the best indication we will get of the geographic statistical distribution of the opioid crisis . It ’s alreadybeen shew , there is a warm geographical connection between high opioid ethical drug and death from overdoses .
InJAMA web Open , Goodwin confirms the correlation is real , at least for a sample distribution mostly aged over 65 . In the 693 counties with opioid prescription well above the national norm , Trump score almost 60 per centum of the vote , compared to less than 39 percent in the 638 counties with rates importantly below norm . A weaker , but still substantial , correlation was found between opioid enjoyment and voting for Republican congressional candidates . There was nigh no correlativity , however , between presidential suffrage and insulin prescription , indicate the relationship is not about aesculapian service .
The chance that this effect is random is less than one in a thousand . Some people may jump to the end being on drug inspired Trump - ballot , but correlation does notequal causing . Instead , it is much more likely uncouth factors influenced both opioid economic consumption and voting behavior .
Goodwin and Centennial State - authors went searching for these rudimentary cause . Although they were unable to find all of them , they did find factors that explicate around two - thirds of the measured association .
High unemployment , rural condition , and Department of Education were all predictive of both opioid use and Trump voting . As to the other third of the relationship , Goodwinspeculated to NPRthe wipeout of residential district opioid over - prescription induces may have driven a desperation for variety . " That can lead to a sense of desperation . You want something different . You desire radical alteration . "
