This cockcrow at Gobbler ’s Knob in Punxsutawney , Pennsylvania , conditions - foreshadow groundhog Phil go through his shadow , which means he ’s calling for six more workweek of winter - comparable condition . Do n’t get too bummed , though — Phil ’s late track record is n’t that not bad on the national level .
The tradition start in 1887 , and since then , the woodchuck chosen to comprise Phil has understand his shadow 101 time . There have only been 17 instances when he has n’t seen it . ( There are nine yr without any disk of Phil ’s prediction ) .
The National Climatic Data Centertallied Phil ’s prediction since 1988 . They then compared the mean national temperature in February and March for each yr with those month ' twentieth century averages to see how well Punxsutawney Phil performed . Now , it ’s important to keep in mind the difference between weather and mood here . It is also crucial to recollect that this is a charming groundhog we ’re talking about .
In 2014 , Phil was correct on the money . After he watch his shadow , the res publica endured the thirty-seventh cold February on phonograph record ( 1.6 ° F below the twentieth century average ) and the 43rd coldest March ( 1.0 ° F below the 20th century average ) . equate with his other prediction , however , it seems that Phil get lucky .
Between 1988 and 2013 , Phil saw his shadow 17 clock time . After presage six more hebdomad of winter for those days , there were 12 Februarys with above - middling temperatures in the U.S. and 13 above - ordinary Marches . Of the eight time he did not see his shadow , which portends an early spring , he come better — there hoist up being four below - average Februarys and one below - average March . ( Check out the full table here . )
Phil has predicted 100 % correctly in only five of the 26 years the National Climatic Data Center analyse ( 1990 , 1995 , 1997 , 1999 , 2014 ) . Other than in 2014 , he only nailed the days in which he calculate an early spring . consider the contiguous United States just experienced its eighteenth straight class with an above - average one-year temperature , Phil may be impudent to roleplay the numbers and always omen an other spring .
Then again , perhaps we wait too much from a marmot with no access to nationwide climate data .
