A prominent , multi - continent studypublished in this week ’s Naturehas bring out a significant flaw in how climate models have been portend droughts .
Dr Chris Taylor from NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology was study storm formations in Africa , when he realized that rainfall was most likely in places where the dirt was dry out . In a press release , he articulate :
“ We had been search at storms in Africa and know that rain cloud there incline to brew up in places where it had n’t rain in the premature few solar day . We were surprised to see a standardized radiation pattern occurring in other regions of the world such as the US and continental Europe . In those less extreme climates , with more flora covert , we bear the stain wetness outcome would be too imperfect to identify . ”
Across all the continent they saw a similar pattern — “ afternoon rain falls preferentially over soils that are comparatively dry compared to the surrounding area . ”
What make this discovery really interesting is that this is the exact antonym of what most of the current climate prediction model hypothesise . The investigator looked at six spherical weather and clime model used to simulate climate change , and all of which were base on positively charged feedback — that wet soils initiation rain . These models can imprint a feedback loop , where juiceless areas do n’t get rain , which make even dryer condition .
That ’s not to say that the models of climate change make thing seem bad than they are — we do n’t experience yet . It ’s now a challenge to adjust the models to the young data point , and see if the retentive term shock deepen at all from this information .
Top photo byhow lucky we are .
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